POLL-Indonesia Feb Trade Surplus Seen Widening on Strong Commodity Exports

MACROECONOMICS - JAKARTA. Indonesia's export growth likely accelerated in February due to high commodity prices, as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia fueled fears of supply squeezes and as authorities in Jakarta lifted a ban on coal exports, a Reuters poll showed.

The Southeast Asian country's trade surplus is expected to widen to $1.66 billion in February, up from around $930 million in January, according to the median forecast of 15 analysts.

The resource-rich country has been enjoying an export boom riding on an cyclical upswing of commodity prices, allowing it to record a trade surplus every month since May 2020.

February's exports are forecast to show a jump of 37.32% on a yearly basis, up from January's 25.31% rise, while February imports were seen up 40.04%, compared with 36.77% a month prior.

ANZ analysts, who predicted a $2.65 billion trade surplus for February, said exports received a boost from the lifting of the coal export ban, as well as higher prices of commodities such as coal and palm oil.

Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal, stopped shipments of the fuel for part of January due to low inventory levels at domestic power plants, in a move that wiped $2 billion of mineral fuel exports.

Analysts had previously forecast a moderation of commodity prices this year, but Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman said the war in Ukraine could prolong the commodities' boom, which would help Indonesia's current account position this year.

"There is an increasing possibility that 2022 current account balance (will) record a narrower deficit than our initial forecast of -2.15% of GDP," Faisal said. Indonesia registered a current account surplus equivalent to 0.3% of GDP in 2021

"The length of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will determine the matter."