Forex Calendar (Oct 3, 2025): Packed with Global PMI Data and Central Bank Comments

Reporter: Hasbi Maulana | Editor: Hasbi Maulana

NEW YORK - Today, October 3, 2025, a plethora of economic data and central bank official speeches are set to potentially move the market.

Traders should brace for heightened volatility, particularly during the European and American sessions, with a primary focus on the service sector, the engine of modern economic growth.

While China is on holiday, reducing liquidity for pairs related to the CNY, price action will be largely determined by Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from various countries and policy signals from The Fed, ECB, and BoE.

US Dollar (USD) - Final Test Before NFP

Today is a heavy day for the US Dollar, filled with a series of key data and Fed official speeches.

PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing Data: The main focus will be on the S&P Global Services PMI (projection: 53.9) and more importantly, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (projection: 51.8). Numbers above 50 indicate expansion.

If the ISM results exceed expectations (especially the New Orders and Employment sub-components), this could strengthen the narrative of a still robust US economy, support a sustained interest rate hike, and strengthen the USD. Conversely, disappointing figures could put pressure on the Greenback.

Fed Official Speeches: Comments from FOMC Member Williams and Fed Goolsbee will be sought for further confirmation regarding The Fed's interest rate projections. Hawkish signals (tendency to raise interest rates) will be bullish for the USD.

Other Data: Changes in Factory Orders and Durable Goods will provide additional insights into the health of manufacturing.

Euro (EUR) - Challenges from European Data and ECB Talk

The single European currency faces two-way risks from data and ECB communication.

Eurozone PMI Data: The HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone (projection: 51.2) serves as a gauge of economic health. Consistency above 50 is positive, but a significant increase is needed to drive the EUR stronger. German and French data (not listed but underlying) will be highly influential.

Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI YoY data (projection: -0.4%) remaining negative indicates inflation pressure is still controlled at the producer level, which could give the ECB room not to rush to raise interest rates further. This is potentially bearish for the EUR.

ECB Talk: Speeches from President Lagarde, Isabel Schnabel, and Luis de Guindos will be critical. The market will look for clues about interest rate plans after the previously signaled pause.

British Pound (GBP) - All Eyes on Bailey

The Pound Sterling today depends on data and especially the speech of the BoE leader.

S&P Global/CIPS PMI: The UK Services PMI data (projection: 51.9) is the most important. Strong numbers can support the GBP, while weak ones will raise questions about the resilience of the UK economy.

BoE Governor Speech: Comments from Governor Andrew Bailey are the main event for the GBP. The BoE is caught between stubborn inflation and recession risks. Any signal about whether the bank will raise interest rates again or maintain them will cause significant movement in pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.

Japanese Yen (JPY) - Seeking Direction from Ueda and Labor Data

The Yen will react to local data and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy prospects.

Labor Data: The Job Vacancy/Applicant Ratio and Unemployment Rate will provide a picture of the tightness of the Japanese labor market. Strong data supports the BOJ policy normalization thesis, which can strengthen the JPY.

PMI and Ueda: The au Jibun Bank Services PMI and most importantly, the speech of BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will be scrutinized. The market will seek clarity on the timing of the removal of negative interest rate policy. Hawkish signals from Ueda can trigger a Yen rally.

Australian Dollar (AUD) - Can PMI Data Lift Sentiment?

The Aussie gets an early Asian session opportunity to move.

Manufacturing & Services PMI: The release of the Judo Bank Services PMI (projection: 52.0) and Composite PMI (projection: 52.1) will be a barometer of the health of the Australian economy. Dazzling numbers, especially above 55, can provide strong support for the AUD, while disappointing figures can make it underperform against the majors.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) - Awaiting Weak Services PMI

Data from Canada is relatively limited today.

S&P Global Services PMI is the only significant release. Previous data in the contraction zone (48.60) indicates a slowdown in the service sector. A worse-than-expected reading could put additional pressure on the Loonie, especially if oil (Canada's main source of income) also weakens.

Chinese Yuan (CNY/CNH) - Market Closed, Limited Impact

With China's National Holiday all day, liquidity for pairs related to the Yuan will decrease. However, this long holiday itself can create uncertainty and risk-off sentiment that indirectly affects commodity currencies like the AUD and CAD.

Conclusion and Trading Strategy

High-Risk Scenario: Today has the potential to produce "whipsaw" movements or strong trends, especially if global PMI/ISM data collectively show an acceleration or slowdown in the economy.

European & US Sessions are Key: The highest volatility is expected to occur from 15:00 WIB (European data) until the close of the US session, triggered by PMI, ISM data, and comments from Lagarde, Bailey, and Williams.

Watch the Speakers: Do not underestimate the impact of central bank speeches. A single sentence from Lagarde or Bailey can quickly reverse a data-driven trend.

Traders are advised to use strict risk management (stop-loss), monitor order execution carefully due to potential volatility spikes, and focus on pairs most impacted by data releases, such as EUR/USD (from European and US data), GBP/USD (from UK data and Bailey), and USD/JPY (from US data and US Treasury yields).