JCI is flat ahead of Pilkada and The Fed’s speech

JAKARTA. Two days remain to the concurrent local elections or ‘pilkada’. Market and stock exchange participants expect that the concurrent local elections, mainly the Jakarta gubernatorial election, will run smoothly and safely.

During the recent one week, the JCI (Jakarta Composite Index) has been flat. This reflects the market caution in responding to the domestic political constellation. Understandably, the growing political tension, let alone the unrest, may lead to the uncertainty, which is the main enemy of market.

Analyst at Danareksa Sekuritas Lucky Bayu said, the quite period ahead of the elections has calmed down the market. This situation may divert market participants’ attention.
The rationalities of the market participants are being tested. This reflects on the JCI’s movements ahead of some demonstrations in Jakarta.

For an example, three days to one day ahead of the demonstration on 4 November 2016, the JCI dropped by 1.72%. But the JCI increased by 0.62% on the ‘D-day’ of the demonstration.

The JCI had been stronger ahead of the demonstration on 2 December 2016. The index increased by 0.99% on one day before the action, and increased more by 0.91% to 5,245.95 on Friday (2/12). Lastly, ahead of ‘112 action’ in the last week, the JCI had once increased to 5,400, despite it subsequently slightly dropped to 5,371.67.

Aside of the local elections, Lucky estimates that the JCI will remain moving in sideways while waiting for the speech of The Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen. Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver speech in the last of this week. In this case, the markets are waiting for the certainty, or at least the signs of the increase in the US’ interest rate from Yellen.

Nico added, the market participants are also alert of the potential of ‘the second volume; of currency war between the US and China. The potential reflects on China’s policy in anticipating Trump’s protectionism.

Under such sentiments, Lucky predicts that the JCI will be moving in the range of 5,370-5,450 in this week. Nico predicts that the JCI may return to 5,500 if it can persist at the level of above 5.370.

The next direction of JCI will depend on Yellen’s speech and the prospect of the increase in the US interest rate. “I have not seen the signs of the increase in the interest rate,” Lucky said. (Muhammad Farid/Translator)