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From the stock price, Alif noted that from the 2020 base, INCO's stock price has outperformed its peers, especially during the LME pressure in 2022.
“What we have seen over the past few months is the consolidation of INCO's stock price in relation to its blended peers index, which is largely driven by shaky nickel fundamentals,” he explained.
According to him, this paves the way for a divestment price that is discounted by 23.3% or Rp 3,070 per share against INCO's TTM PBV of 0.95 times, or 31.3% against the median TTM PBV of nickel mining companies of 1.06 times.
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Despite this, he believes the correction of INCO's stock price is likely too aggressive compared to the price of the combined index of similar companies.
This is also reflected from the relatively discounted TTM EV/EBITDA, about 3.6 times compared to the average peers of 6 times and also the consensus forward EV/EBITDA at 4.8 times compared to the average peers at 6.7 times in 2024.
MNC Securities recommends holding INCO with a target price of Rp 3,850.
