'SBY must change in 2012'

JAKARTA. Experts have made a dire prediction that unless President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) gets his act together by becoming more decisive , things will only get worse as forces within society take over control from the state.

An analyst from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said that Yudhoyono’s slow response to every conflict in the country had contributed to the weakening of state authority in the country, a condition that gradually led people to use violence in pursuit of their demands.

“We will have a situation where the state loses its power as elements within society grow stronger. This so-called weak state ... could transpire in Indonesia if President SBY maintains his indecisiveness in responding to crises in the country,” Philips J. Vermonte, a researcher with the CSIS said in a press conference on Thursday.

Vermonte was quoting from the American political scientist Joel S. Migdal in his influential work Strong Societies, Weak States.

Based on what happened in 2011, the situation is unlikely to improve in 2012.

“Last year was the year of living dangerously for minority groups in Indonesia as it started with an attack on the Ahmadiyah sect in Cikeusik, and ended with shootings of residents in Bima, West Nusa Tenggara. This year (2012) could remain dangerous for minorities if the government remains reluctant to punish perpetrators and bring them to justice,” Vermonte said.

He attributed the intensifying social conflicts to four main reasons; discord among the political elite, local elections, the impact of the European debt crisis and the growing dominance of majority groups.

He said that Yudhoyono aggravated the problems by not handling them decisively.

Vermonte therefore urged Yudhoyono to get his hands dirty by starting to deal with all conflict this year, as it would be the last year for the President to fulfill his campaign promises, which among others included protecting human rights and corruption eradication.

He said that it would have to be this year or it would be too late.

“The government won’t make any significant policies in the period leading up to presidential election because government officials, who are mostly members of political parties, will focus on how to win the election,” he said.

Fellow CSIS analyst Harry Tjan Silalahi said that Yudhoyono should begin working on winning back the public’s trust.

“People are aware of many dark forces working within the government, and Yudhoyono must work really hard to win over the public,” he said.

Contacted separately, chairman of the human rights watchdog Setara Institute, Hendardi, predicted that Yudhoyono would do worse in protecting human rights in the next two years as the country entered the election season.

“I don’t think the government will do anything significant to resolve current conflicts or protect human rights. Things will get worse as the presidential election approaches. Minority groups better prepare themselves for the worst,” he said.

Hendardi also said that attacks against minority groups would intensify as they would likely be engineered by politicians seeking votes.

Earlier, environmental groups predicted that land disputes over mining and plantation activities would intensify throughout the archipelago in the coming months.(The Jakarta Post)