Rupiah weakens, approaching 14,500

JAKARTA. Bank Indonesia (BI) must prepare more cash to maintain the rupiah exchange rate as it inches closer to Rp 14,500 per US dollar, a far cry from the 2015 revised state budget’s (APBN-P) assumption of Rp 12,500 per dollar.

The rupiah exchange rate in the spot market was down 0.03 percent to 14,491 per dollar this morning, according to Bloomberg data, as quoted by Kontan.co.id. It is the weakest level since July 9, 1998, when the rupiah was at 15,450 per US dollar.

PT Monex Investindo Futures senior research and analyst Albertus Christian said the rupiah’s depreciation was related to new speculation that the Fed would increase its fund rate by October or November, sooner than its initial plan for December.

“The rupiah depreciated due to [the Fed’s change of plan], which boosted capital outflows in equities and bonds,” the analyst said. He predicted that the rupiah would move in the range of 14,495 to 14,435.

On Sunday, Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco CEO John Williams said the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would increase its benchmark interest rate during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in October or November.

The Jakarta interbank spot dollar rate (JISDOR) – a rupiah exchange rate benchmark composed by BI – was at 14,486 per dollar on Tuesday morning. JISDOR closed at 14,451 per dollar in the previous day.

During a meeting with the House of Representatives’ Budget Commission on Monday evening, BI revised its bottom line projection for the rupiah exchange rate for 2016 to 13,700-13,900 per dollar from 13,400-13,900 previously.

As quoted by kompas.com, BI governor Agus Martowardojo said he was optimistic that the rupiah would strengthen and move under 14,000 per dollar in the second quarter of 2016. He argued that the current exchange rate volatility was only temporary.