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The ICMA called for the ban to be revoked since it was "taken hastily without being discussed with business players".
Shares of Indonesia's coal miners fell early on Monday. Adaro Energy dropped 3.1%, while Bukit Asam lost 3.3% and Bumi Resources shed 2.9%. However, Adaro shares later rebounded.
Pandu said some miners are unable to sell to PLN since the company requires coal with a heating value of 4,200 kilocalories per kg or less, which is considered a low-grade form of the fuel.
A spokesperson for Adaro, one of Indonesia's biggest coal miners, said that in 2021 it sold about 27% of its output domestically, more than required.
Analysts expect the miners' willingness to do whatever it takes to restore export flows would lead to a quick resolution, especially since they have abundant supply capacity.
"I believe total monthly output from Indonesian mines is just below the 40-million-tonne mark, which would represent roughly a third of annual domestic demand. As such, it's difficult to envision this dragging on for more than a few weeks," said coal market analyst Matt Warder of Seawolf Research.
SOUTH KOREA, INDIA MONITORING SITUATION
The ICMA is concerned about potential disputes with buyers if producers declared force majeure because of the ban.
The industry ministry of South Korea said there were likely to be some delivery delays, but expected that 55% of January coal shipments from Indonesia that had been loaded will be delivered on time.
Read Also: Indonesia Bans Coal Exports in January On Domestic Supply Worries - Media
"While the ministry expects Indonesia's coal export ban would have limited short-term impact, considering the country's (South Korea) coal inventory and coal shipments from other countries, including Australia, we need to closely monitor developments," the ministry said.
Coal buyers in India, which accounted for over 15% of Indonesia's coal exports in 2021, expect some re-routing of shipments from other suppliers if the ban persists.
"We might see coal from other origins such as Australia coming to India and diversion of vessels going to other countries in the region such as Bangladesh coming to India, if India pays a higher price," said iEnergy's Vyas.
Other analysts said to wait and see if Indonesia changes course on Wednesday. "Of course there have been knee jerk reactions, but people are waiting to see how this plays out," said Puneet Gupta of Indian coal trading marketplace Coalshastra.
But, steps to enact the ban are advancing with Indonesia's transportation ministry on Sunday issuing a temporary halt on vessels loading coal at ports.
