India's Retail Inflation Tops 6% But No Rate Rise Seen For Now

INDIA - NEW DELHI. India's retail inflation has gone over the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band, accelerating to a seven-month high just above 6% in January, though economists don't expect this to lead to a rate hike in the near future.

Warning the markets before the data release, Shaktikanta Das, RBI governor, said the uptick in annual inflation should not create any panic and the central bank remained committed to its inflation mandate.

Boosted by rising costs of food, fuel and household items, consumer prices were up 6.01% in January, compared with a revised 5.66% in the previous month, Ministry of Statistics data showed on Monday.

January's figure crossed the upper limit of the RBI's targeted range between 2% and 6%, and also exceeded the consensus Reuters poll forecast of 6.00%.

Many economists, however, warn that despite the RBI's expectation of inflationary pressures easing, rising oil and food prices pose a risk of further inflation, noting higher oil prices and other factors.

"Upward moving Brent crude prices triggered by the geopolitical tensions, depreciation bias in rupee and the risk of imported inflation pose key risks to (the) inflation scenario," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Financial Holdings, Mumbai.

Economists said the RBI might be underestimating inflationary pressures over the coming year, but it may not raise key policy rates any time soon amid pressures to support the economic recovery.

"For now, we expect the RBI to abstain from rate changes before the August policy (meeting)," said Sakshi Gupta, economist at HDFC Bank.

The RBI's monetary policy committee (MPC) left the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 4.0% last week, sticking to its accommodative policy stance to help the economy recover from the pandemic.

Food prices, which contribute to nearly half of the consumer price index (CPI), rose 5.43% year-on-year in January, compared with 4.05% a month earlier. Prices of edible oil rose nearly one-fifth from a year ago.

Annual core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, was estimated at between 6% and 6.2% in January, according to four economists, compared with 6% to 6.01% in the previous month.

The government does not release core inflation numbers.

The central bank expects retail headline inflation could peak by March and then ease back towards 4% in the second quarter of the next fiscal year starting in April.

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