BoE Flags Risk of Recession and 10% Inflation as it Raises Rates Again

INFLATION TO TOP 10%

British consumer price inflation hit a 30-year high of 7% in March, more than triple the BoE's 2% target, and the central bank revised up its forecasts for price growth to show it peaking above 10% in the last three months of this year.

It had previously predicted a peak of about 8% in April.

The BoE said British inflation would peak later than in other big advanced economies due to a cap on household energy tariffs. Fuel bills jumped by 54% in April and the BoE now sees a further 40% increase in October, hitting the economy.

Real post-tax household disposable income - a measure of living standards - is forecast to fall 1.75% this year, the biggest calendar-year drop since 2011 and the second-biggest since the BoE's records began in the 1960s.

Voters in local government elections on Thursday are expected to punish Prime Minister Boris Johnson over the cost-of-living crisis and for breaking his own COVID lockdown rules.

The BoE kept its forecast for economic growth this year at 3.75%, but slashed its forecast for 2023 to show a contraction of 0.25% from a previous estimate of 1.25% growth. It cut its growth projection for 2024 to 0.25% from a previous 1.0%.

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While growth in the first three months of this year has been stronger than the BoE predicted, it expects the economy to stagnate in the second quarter, due to an extra public holiday and reduced COVID testing. It sees a nearly 1% fall in GDP in the final quarter as the next energy price rise kicks in.

Those forecasts were based on bets in financial markets that the BoE would increase rates to about 2.5% by the middle of next year, which the central bank signalled was probably too much.

It said it expected inflation would fall to 1.3% in three years' time, based on market pricing for interest rates, as higher unemployment and the cost-of-living squeeze hit the economy. That would be the biggest undershoot relative to its 2% target since the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

The BoE also said it would work on a plan to start selling the government bonds it has bought since that crisis, which currently stand at just under 850 billion pounds ($1.05 trillion).

BoE staff would update the Monetary Policy Committee on the plan at its August meeting which would "allow the Committee to make a decision at a subsequent meeting on whether to commence sales".