JAKARTA. The rupiah exchange rate traded on Thursday morning weakened by 13 points to Rp 14,145 per US dollar from Rp 14,132.
“The US dollar has appreciated against the rupiah again following the release of the ADP's [Automatic Data Processing] US employment data, which has improved the possibility of an increase in the Fed's [US Federal Reserve] fund rate in September,” PT Platon Niaga Berjangka analyst Lukman Leong said as quoted by Antara in Jakarta on Thursday.
He said investors were waiting for the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, which was scheduled to be released on Friday, to see the latest employment market condition in the country.
“It is projected that there will be an increase in the NFP data and the US unemployment rate is also predicted to decline. If the projections are correct, this will be positive news for the US, which will eventually support the strengthening of the dollar. But if the released data contradicts what has been expected, then pressures against the US dollar could occur,” said Lukman.
On the other side, the analyst said half the investors were still shadowed with worries due to declining data from the manufacturing sector. This situation brought uncertainty as to whether or not the Fed fund rate hike would occur this year.
“In the midst of the uncertainties, currencies in developing countries, including the rupiah, have become less attractive,” said Lukman.
Meanwhile, Samuel Sekuritas economist Rangga Cipta added that pressures against the rupiah were predicted to calm down as Bank Indonesia (BI) was getting more active about intervening in the domestic foreign currency market.
The analyst said there was more stability in the government bond (SUN) market following predictions on declining inflation rates, commodity prices and expectations that SUN yields would remain high despite the weakening of the rupiah.
“The central bank’s intervention will cause the pressure on the rupiah to decrease slightly,” said Lukman.
