Indonesia Posts Smaller-than-Expected $2.01 bln Trade Surplus in Jan

MACROECONOMICS - JAKARTA. Indonesia posted a $2.01 billion trade surplus in January, smaller than forecast, as exports dropped more than expected amid sluggish global trade.

A median forecast by 18 analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a trade surplus of $2.99 billion last month. The January surplus was also smaller compared to $3.30 billion in December.

Exports by Southeast Asia's biggest economy dropped 8.06% year-on-year in January to $20.52 billion as shipments of its top commodities such as coal and palm oil shrunk. The poll had expected a 2.7% drop in exports.

The shipment value of palm oil, of which Indonesia is the world's biggest producer, declined by 11.54% year-on-year in January.

Exports are seen remaining weak for the rest of the year as the economies of Indonesia's major trading partners are expected to ease.

"As the economies of major trading partners continued to weaken, the moderation in exports became more pronounced," said Irman Faiz, an economist with Bank Danamon,

He added that the narrowing trade surplus until year-end could push the 2024 current account deficit to 1% of GDP from 0.4% of GDP last year.

The central bank had estimated the 2024 current account deficit between 0.1%-0.9% of GDP.

Meanwhile, imports grew 0.36% in January to $18.51 billion against the polled expectation of a 1.3% rise.