Brazil Central Bank Raises Rates by 150 Bps, Sees Smaller Hike in March

CREDIT INTEREST RATE - BRASILIA. Brazil's central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates by 150 basis points for the third time in a row, but signaled a smaller rate hike at its next meeting, as many private economists expect policymakers to wrap up the tightening cycle in coming months.

The bank's rate-setting committee, known as Copom, decidedly unanimously to raise its benchmark interest rate to 10.75%, as forecast by 27 of 29 economists in a Reuters poll.

It was the eighth straight rate hike since policymakers began raising the Selic rate last March from a record-low 2%, kicking off the world's most aggressive current hiking cycle as inflation soared to 10.1% in 2021 from 4.5% in 2020.

Brazilian rates are now at their highest level since early 2017, as the central bank tackles high commodity prices and a questionable fiscal outlook as President Jair Bolsonaro proposes cutting fuel taxes as he gears up for an October election.

The central bank reaffirmed its intention to extend the monetary tightening "significantly" into restrictive territory and stick to its strategy until it sees disinflation "consolidate" and inflation expectations anchored near targets.

Still, policymakers suggested they would pare back the size of their next rate hike in March.

"For its next steps, the Committee foresees as adequate, at this moment, a reduction in the pace of adjustment of the interest rate," Copom wrote in the statement of their rate decision.

That could mean a final interest rate hike of 100 basis points in March to end the tightening cycle, said Felipe Salles, chief economist at C6 Bank.

"It was a surprise to see the indication of a reduced 'pace' – we didn't expect that. We thought the central bank would keep some flexibility and leave the door open for March," said Gustavo Ribeiro, chief economist at Asa Investments.

"In our view, it increases the chance of the cycle extending past March," he added.

José Francisco Gonçalves, chief economist at Fator, also forecast a March rate hike of 100 basis points, followed by a final increase of 50 basis points in May.

Despite a 5% rebound for Brazil's currency last month and a dimming outlook for economic growth this year, which should cool price pressures, 2022 inflation forecasts rose in recent weeks to 5.38% in the latest central bank poll of private economists.

That would be well above the 3.5% target for this year, but down sharply from 10.2% in the 12 months through mid-January.

In its statement on Wednesday, Copom stressed that the "relevant horizon" for its monetary policy "includes 2022 and, to a larger degree, 2023," which some took as a dovish signal that the bank was looking past the current inflation spike.

The consensus outlook for 2022 economic growth in the central bank's weekly poll has tumbled to 0.3% after gross domestic product data showed Brazil's economy entered a recession last year.

However, policymakers flagged in their Wednesday statement that fourth-quarter growth indicators "posted a slightly better than expected evolution, especially in labor market data."