A Jokowi bid could change political landscape

JAKARTA. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is expected to be heading for a big win in the 2014 legislative election if it decides to nominate Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as its presidential candidate, a survey has found.

The Jakarta-based pollster — the Pol-Tracking Institute — found that if the PDI-P announced the candidacy of Jokowi before the legislative election, the party would receive 30.78 percent of the vote, far higher than the Golkar Party in second place with 12.34 percent, the Great Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party on 6.51 percent and the ruling Democratic Party (PD) on 4.67 percent.

In this scenario, only the four political parties would be able to send members to the House of Representatives while the remaining eight parties would fail to reach the 3.5 percent threshold.

However, if Jokowi is not nominated, according to the survey, the PDI-P would receive 18.8 percent.

Golkar, meanwhile, would receive 15.8 percent higher than the 12.34 percent predicted if Jokowi was nominated. Gerindra is expected to get 7.6 percent and the PD 5.6 percent.

The United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the People’s Conscience (Hanura) Party, which were previously predicted to struggle in their search for House seats, would be able to pass the threshold if Jokowi was not nominated.

The Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKPI), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the National Democrat (NasDem) Party, meanwhile, would fail to pass the threshold in either scenario, according to Pol-Tracking.

In another scenario, which puts Jokowi as vice presidential candidate, the PDI-P could receive 28.4 percent of the national vote, regardless of who would be the presidential candidate, the survey found.

In a scenario where Jokowi is excluded from the list of nominated candidates, chief patron of Gerindra Lt. Gen. (ret) Prabowo Subianto would receive the most votes (19.18 percent), followed by PDI-P chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri (15.26 percent), Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie (13 percent) and Hanura chairman Gen. (ret) Wiranto (11 percent).

In the survey, Pol-Tracking asked respondents which candidate they would vote for if an election were held today, and 37 percent of respondents said Jokowi, followed by Prabowo with 10.3 percent.

Megawati has insisted she will only announce the party’s presidential candidate after the legislative election in April, a decision that could benefit PDI-P’s rivals. “Supporters of non-PDI-P parties might vote for the party if Jokowi is nominated. On the other hand, PDI-P supporters could end up voting for other parties if Jokowi is not nominated,” Pol-Tracking director Hanta Yuda said. (Bagus BT Saragih)