JAKARTA. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has predicted a trade surplus recorded in the first two months of 2016 to continue in March, although slightly decreased as a result of an expected increase in imports.
BPS deputy head of distribution and statistics Sasmito Hadi Wibowo said he expected both export and import value to increase in March because the month spanned more trading days than February. "The need for imported goods usually rises in March. We expect a small surplus," he said in Jakarta on Tuesday.
Sasmito added his hope that the upward trend of the rupiah against the US dollar seen over the past few weeks would not have a significant impact on the country’s exports in March.
The currency has appreciated below the psychological threshold of 13,000 per dollar as global funds have flowed into local stocks and bonds in the past few weeks, anticipating the result of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
After recording a US$ 50,6 million trade surplus in January, Indonesia recorded a sharp surplus increase in February to US$ 1,14 billion, owing to a 7,8% month-on-month (mom) rise in exports and a 2,91% decline in imports.
According to Coordinating Economics Minister Darmin Nasution, the slump in February imports indicates that many businesspeople have not yet realized their work plans. "They’re not waiting, but they haven’t realized (their plans) yet," Darmin said at the State Palace.
Earlier, BPS head Suryamin said that February’s surplus was the biggest in five years.
The country reported an US$ 828,6 million surplus in February 2012, but stumbled to a deficit of US$ 297,7 million a year later. The February trade balance returned to a surplus in 2014 and 2015, worth US$ 843,4 million and US$ 662,7 million, respectively. (Ayomi Amindoni)
