JAKARTA. One day after Bank Indonesia (the Central Bank) held the 7-days repo rate at the level of 4.75%, most of banks suffered decreases in their shares prices. The price of PT Bank Danamon Tbk or BDMN’s stake dropped by 1.91% to the level of Rp 4,100 per a share, Friday (20/1).
BDMN recorded the most significant decrease in the share price compared to the shares of other banks. During the same period, the shares of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) and PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) dropped by 1.67% and 0.45%, respectively.
The shares of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) were corrected by 0.81%, while PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk or BMRI stocks were closed stagnant. “The decreases were driven by profit taking,” said Head of Research of MNC Securities Edwin Sebayang.
Nevertheless, the shares of banks had increased significantly ahead of the last year. On the other hand, markets predicted that the performance of banking sector in the fourth quarter 2016 would be only slightly different with the third quarter.
Therefore, the increases in banks’ shares prices apparently were caused more by window dressing, rather than the banks’ performance. “BI has announced its benchmark interest rate. This has triggered investors to take profit,” Edwin said.
In general, banking sector has performed positive performance, but not that special. As of November 2016, credit and third party funds only grew by 8% and 8.4%on year on year (yoy) basis.
However, the non-performing loan ratio also improved to 3.18%. “However, in average net interest margin (NIM) only slightly decreased to 5.62%,” Analyst at Mandiri Sekuritas Tjandra Lienandjaja wrote in a research, which was released in the last weekend.
Therefore, in general Tjandra has neutral assessment on the shares of banking sector. However, Tjandra favors BBTN’s shares.
Edwin agrees that BBTN offers the most attractive shares among the banks, mainly in terms of the fundamentals. “The demands on property remain high due to the housing blacklog,” he said.
Meanwhile, analyst at BNI Securities Richard Jelly assessed that this year the banking sector will be overweight. The results of BI’s survey show that market will be more optimistic on the credit growth in 2017.
The respondents predict that in average the credit growth will be ranging around 13.1%, or higher than credit growth in 2015 at the level of 9%.
Richard projects that the credit growth in 2016 and 2017 will be at 9% and 11%, respectively. “We predict that corporate and consumer credits will lead the bank’s credit growth in this year,” he said.
(Muhammad Farid/Translator)
